The only story this week leading up to Super Bowl XLIV is...there is no story. The only thing creating any buzz is whether or not Colts DE Dwight Freeney will play in the game and at what level of strength.
There is no doubt in my mind that he will suit up for the game even if he does not play a down. My guess is he will be around 70%, which is probably more effective than his replacement would be. Just the presence of Freeney on the field forces the Saints to be aware of where he is and adjust to him. If the Saints treat him lightly and don't pay attention to him early in the game, look for him to have an impact and make a big play.
On the opposite side, what are the Saints going to do to stop Peyton Manning? Better question is, WHAT HAS ANYONE done to stop Peyton Manning? The answer is really nothing. He's had an answer to just about every possible scenario defenses have thrown at him this season. When teams have blitzed and blitzed often, as the Jets did in the AFC title game, Peyton adjusted and quietly put up 30 points while throwing for 377 yards and 3 touchdowns. When teams stick with the conventional rush, he stands in the pocket with all day to throw and eventually dinks and dunks and then throws on a dime where you think there is no spot to put it. Realizing all this, the best scenario to attack the Colts offense is something I heard from an analyst this week. For the first half have one game plan and in the second half, have an entirely different game plan. This way whatever adjustments Manning has made will have no effect on what your plans are. Easier said than done because if your first game plan fails, your down by 3 scores before you even know what hit you.
Putting all that aside, the Saints must get to Manning, but not at all costs. They must get to him with their conventional front, knock passes down at the line of scrimmage, and make him do the one thing he does not do well...scramble. Of the 3 Manning quarterbacks, Peyton by far has the worst feet. He takes a lot of 3 step drops, gets rid of the ball quickly, and does not take hits. Look for the Saints to play a lot of press coverage to try and offset some of that and try and make Peyton move around a little bit.
The Saints offense this season has been spectacular, averaging over 30 points a game and 400 yards of offense per game, and not all of it through the air. Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, and Mike Bell have combined for over 1,600 rushing yards this season. Drew Brees continued his resurgence throwing for over 4,300 passing yards and over 70% completion during the regular season. The Saints have one of if not the most complete offenses in the NFL, but the Colts have a very underrated defense. Freeney and Mathis have disrupted quarterbacks all year, and the Colts have stopped the run without their most effective run stopper, safety Bob Sanders. The Cots in the postseason faced 2 teams who's strength was clearly running the football. They stopped it by bringing safeties down in the box and playing a lot of single high. The Colts will not do that in this game. They were burned in the AFC Championship game by the Jets through the air on a couple of plays that they wont allow the Saints to do in the Super Bowl. The Saints will score points, but not at the rate Manning and the Colts will.
Prediction: Colts 35 Saints 31
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