In Week 16, the Jets limped into Indianapolis at 8-7 with a slim glimmer of hope that with 2 wins and help they would be eligible for the playoffs after losing a heart breaker at home to Altanta 7 days earlier.
The Colts were a freight train rolling in at 14-0 looking to make history. 4 days before the game even kicks-off, Colts President and General Manager Bill Polian decided to not play his starters for the entire game and pull the plug on the pursuit of perfection. Midway through the 3rd quarter with the Colts leading 15-9, Peyton Manning hit the bench. In the first play of the second series that Peyton came out, backup Curtis Painter, playing his first ever NFL game, gets sacked, fumbles, Jets recovered for a Touchdown. After that play, it was all Jets. The Colts defense basically laid down the rest of the game.
The Jets have said since then that they didn't get any credit for the win. What kind of credit are you looking for? The Jets played a team with a quarterback that had zero NFL experience and a defense that did not play the entire game. Credit should be given to where credit is deserved, and the Jets deserve credit in that they showed up for the game, and that's about it.
4 weeks later, we have come full-circle and the match-up we have all been hoping for has finally come true. A chance for the Jets to solidify that they in fact are better. A chance for the Colts to show that perfection is not worth the sacrifice of a Super Bowl berth.
For statistical purposes in the Week 16 game, we will only visit the first half. The Jets attempted 16 rushes for 58 yards. They put up 3 points and had two 3 and outs on 5 first half possessions (1 at the end of the half). The Jets on offense did nothing to solidify themselves in the game.
The Jets are a totally different team then they were 4 weeks ago. The running game has been a force with the emergence of Shaun Greene in week 17 and the 2 playoff games. How the Jets win this game is very very simple. Lets start on offense. The line has finally emerged as one of the best in the NFL and they have a great fullback. They should be lining up in some power formations, lot of 2 tight end sets, and lot of I-formation. The Colts know the Jets are built to run the ball. So the Jets should just say "O.K. here it is, line up and stop us." And the Colts do not line up as well on defense man for man than the Jets in the running game. The Colts are in the bottom 3rd in the NFL in rushing defense, averaging 126 ypg. The Jets need to create opportunities to pass the ball when the Colts are thinking run, and run the ball when they are thinking pass. How do you do that? You stay out of predictable down and distances. Positive yardage on 1st and 2nd down, creating manageable 3rd down situations. The Colts feed off of their pass rush with Freeney and Mathis, so if the Jets can keep them on their heels and make them commit to the run, this will create the opportunities for Sanchez to get some big chunks of yardage in the passing game because there is going to come a time in the game when the Jets are going to have to throw if they want to win.
For the Jets on defense, it all revolves around one thing...PASS RUSH! The Jets live and die by how often they get to the quarterback. Not necessarily sacks, but pressure and penetration. They made Phillip Rivers day last Sunday a bad one and forced him to throw when he wasn't ready or his receivers weren't ready. Different situation this week, but they need similar results. Peyton is an expert on identifying defenses and calling them out to his line for pass protection. If you've ever watched the Colts or the NFL, you know that Peyton calls more signals at the line of scrimmage than almost any other quarterback. The Jets need to confuse Manning, not an easy thing to do. But teams who have had success against him in the past during the playoffs that confuse Manning run a 3-4 defense. Go back to the days when Bellichick and New England faced the Colts in '04 and '05. The Pats held the Colts to 17 points in 2 playoff games.
The Colts have one of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game and a suspect running game. Rex Ryan pointed out this week that when you have a cornerback as good as Derelle Revis is, it puts you in a situation where you can put him 1 on 1 with their number 1 receiver, rather than double cover the number 1 receiver and put the best cornerback on the number 2 receiver. He says that this entices the ball to be thrown to the number 1 reciever and with a corner like Revis, Rex feels he and the receiver both have an equal chance of coming down with the ball. This has worked out quiet effectively for the Jets this year. Revis has shut down Randy Moss, Chad OchoCinco, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, and Marques Colston. But the Colts also have the best tight end in football this year in Dallas Clark. What do you do with him? Do you put a linebacker on him? Do you put Kerry Rhodes on him? Do you bring in an extra corner to cover him? That decision will be a difficult but the best choice would be to bring in an extra DB. That allows you to disguise the coverage better and be able to send him on the pass rush to get to Manning. The Jets have had problems this season getting to the quarterback with a conventional pass rush. They blitz 58% of the time, way more than the rest of the league. I believe Lito Sheppard will handle Pierre Garcon, so look for the key match-up to be Dallas Clark on whoever the Jets decide to cover him.
For the Colts to win, I think it comes down to one thing...get up by 2 scores. If the Colts are up at any point in the game by more than 2 scores, I think it would be extremely hard for the Jets to overcome. What the Colts can not do is become one dimensional on offense. They must keep the Jets guessing and stick to the game plan. Mix in the run in a few unconventional places early in the game. Do not become predictable like the Chargers did last week.
If you've ever watched an NFL films highlight of the Colts, you would know that Peyton Manning always has 2 plays for each play, a running play and a passing play. If Peyton gets to the line of scrimmage and does not think the original play called looks like it will work, he will change the play. Also the Colts run a lot of no huddle, so if the Jets get into a situation where they have bad personnel on the field, Manning will get his team to the line quickly and get the snap off and keep running plays until he can't. Those two things are what put Peyton Manning ahead of a lot of great quarterbacks who have played the game. The Jets are going to need to be very aware of those 2 things to have a chance this Sunday.
Prediction: Jets 20 Colts 17
Make your predictions and thoughts on this game in Comments. Saints/Vikings preview tomorrow
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