The biggest story surrounding this years NFL Draft does not surround the number one pick. It revolves around a young man who may not even be drafted in the first round come April.
Tim Tebow is arguably one of if not the most successful college football player in history. A Heisman Trophy, 2 National Titles, 2 First-team All Americans, the list goes on and on. But everyone in the football world is asking what is in store for Tim Tebow at the next level.
The NFL has transitioned into a passing league the past few years, with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning shattering records year after year. The play at the quarterback position has been elevated significantly in the past decade. So the question is, will a man who rode most of his success and fear with his legs, have the arm to make it in the NFL?
I have watched every single game that Tim Tebow has played at the University of Florida, and from watching I can safely say that Tim Tebow will not be a successful every-down quarterback in the NFL. Tebow has taken less than 10 snaps under center in 4 years as a quarterback at Florida. The Gators added a goal line I-formation in his Senior year in order to mix it up in the Red Zone. A little late in the process to learn how to take snaps under center in a league where around 75% of the plays run are under center. If you have been keeping up with Senior Bowl talk this week, you would find out that Tebow struggled under center, having to learn the footwork and the feeling of working from under center. Its not just the snapping of the ball, its the footwork of hand offs to the right and left sides, the play action passes, and the 3,5, and 7 step drops. Play action passes are vital in the NFL today. With defenses committed to stopping the run on early downs, that little fake is a vital decoy to keep defenses on their heels and think twice about taking one step up before the running back has the ball. Tim Tebow has only attempted play action passes out of shot gun with the running back lined up either directly to the right or left of him. He is a little late in the process where his colleagues have been doing it consistently for a decade.
Once you look past all the pre-throw routine, lets get into Tebow's most vital flaw, his throwing motion. Lets take a look at how the all time great Peyton Manning defines the throwing motion:
That may be the kindergarten version of the basic fundamentals of the throwing motion, but there is one element that is Tebow's Achilles heel. Notice how Peyton does not drop the ball below his waist when he begins to move his arm back. Tebow consistently drops the ball to as low as his knee while winding up his arm. Now a lot of Tebow lovers will argue that he did it for 4 years in college and that he can do it in the NFL. With the NFL, things come at you twice as fast and twice as hard and every millisecond counts. The window of opportunity to fit in the ball closes faster than you can snap your fingers. On routes where timing isn't a problem that wont hurt him. But most passing plays are drawn up to go no more than 15-25 yards down the field. On outs, ins, curls, and hitches, the longer it takes for Tebow to deliver the ball, the easier it will be for defenses to close the gap on receivers.
No one is doubting Tebow's arm strength. He could throw the ball 50 yards down field without breaking a sweat. The arm is there, its the mechanics. For those who I've talked to about Gator football over the last 4 years, they know I have advocated for Urban Meyer to bring in an experienced quarterback coach to specifically work with Tebow on his mechanics. Sadly my pleas were not answered.
So where will Tim Tebow fit in in the NFL? With the "Wild Cat" becoming more and more of a fixture in the league, its a perfect scenario for Tebow to jump into. What would work best for Tebow is to incorporate himself into a Wild Cat package for a team and run about 25 plays per game out of that package only. Work in some sweeps, some dive plays, some draws, and some passing plays. All things he has done and done well in his career. The formation is very successful in Miami, where they average 7 yards a play out of it. Incorporating Tebow in that type of scenario will work, and work successfully. But what will not work successfully is Tebow running a conventional package under center game in and game out. His mechanical flaws, along with the fact that he does not respond well to pressure at his feet, does not equal a great scenario for Tebow in the NFL.
I have one message for Tebow, and it is this...PROVE ME WRONG!
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